Why Vero Beach's INSANE $250M Waterfront Project Is In Serious Trouble

So, Vero Beach voters approved a $250 million redevelopment of land loosely known as the Three Corners project by 79%. Just over the bridge, there's an old power plant called Big Blue. No longer in the electric biz, the city owns the land. The city wants it redeveloped. They put out a call for RFPs to see what's everybody's vision for what it could be on a lease where they would own the city would retain ownership. And one company called Clear Path wowed everybody with their vision. So, long story short, is it going to happen?

Is it going to be scaled back? Is it going to stall? What is the impact on all of it? Today, we're going to break it down. Who put forth proposals? Initially, nobody, so they had to extend the time. What's material is that the city wants to retain the ownership of the site. So, think about that. They're asking folks to invest millions and millions and millions of dollars in land they don't own. So, that in and of itself was a structure that dropped out a lot of people. Finally though, they had a bunch of applicants, and the one that prevailed was one that required some asterisks, meaning this would require some variances, some approvals, and some things that aren't necessarily a given that they will be granted.

So, the planning continues. Aside from the marina and the boutiques and the galleries, phase two of the hotel, phase three, is actually meant to be a children's science and technology museum taking advantage of the diverse ecosystem known as the Indian River Lagoon, which is right there. It would be a wonderful accompaniment to the Environmental Learning Center on the north end of the island. They've assembled a top-shelf team. They've got CBRE for financing, they've got Proctor Construction, shout out to them, beautiful local company, Kimley-Horn, very well-regarded engineering company. You have to pay for all of this, and it's a lot of money, and there are obstacles that need to be overcome.

Number one, just because you have a great team and you're going out with a plan on paper doesn't mean you have the budget and you have capital committed to build it. Ideas are just ideas until there's backing behind them and government entities give you the requisite approvals that you need, right? So, it's concept reality. The question is, can one become the other? Problem number two comes from lived experience in the Vero Beach, Indian River County environment where we don't want to give variances. There have been many applicants, many different sites that have sought, for very good reasons so they say, height variances, whether it's a senior living center over by the hospital or this project that have been denied.

The question is, is there a will to grant variances required to make this project happen? And if so, is that a precedent that chips away at the hallmark and rock bedrock of our foundation, which is low-density, height-restricted, or are we going to say, "Nope, work within the footprint." Problem three is really a compilation of problem one and two. You've got to fund it and then you've got to get the approvals. Those are two very large hurdles. So, the question becomes, what's going to happen? Well, one of three things are going to happen.

One, the money gets funded, the approvals get in hand, variances granted, the project goes forward. Possibility number two, the project will happen but in some scaled-back fashion. So, maybe that means there is no hotel. Maybe it's more retail and marina and park and no hotel because the numbers required to make the hotel profitable don't make sense given the height and the yield and the amount doors that hotel would have. Possibility number three, I think it's possible, I happen to think it's unlikely, I don't think it I think it's more probable that we'll get a scaled-back final project, is that nothing happens and the whole thing is stalled.

I think for the sake of everybody in Vero, I think probably scenario number two is more likely where they don't get the height variances that they want, cuz I think a lot of constituents would find that an unacceptable precedent to set, which then there it goes. So, what happens to all of the folks in Vero with one, two, and three? Option one, it happens. I think we get more tourism, more people can stay in the hotel, the the museum itself becomes an entity that becomes an attractive feature for tourism. We've already seen a little bit of tourism going up anyway.

As I think it does, really, even if it's a scaled back version, because if there's something that's perceived to be an asset that's easy to get to for those adjacent communities, whether it's restaurants, shops, boutiques, a park, or a marina, that's a good thing, and I think there is a rising tide effect that that investment has on those homeowners. Not dissimilar to all of the amenities that are available along Riomar Point to the north, to all of those communities, cuz there's shops and dining and private boat houses and new restaurant called Tradewinds all right there.

If nothing happens and it goes dormant, I don't think it's even a net effect. I think it's a no effect. Um I think then the city needs to figure out what they want to do with the site, and maybe the city decides they're going to sell it. I don't know. I don't I'm not sure there's an appetite for that, either. So, what do the locals think? My guess would be the locals want the development. I'm not sure there's an appetite for height variances for a hotel. My guess would be if that didn't pencil out and make economic sense within the constraints of our existing structure, locals would be okay with that.

My guess is the majority would be okay with that, but they'd love to see another park, another marina with controlled development and access to take advantage of our beautiful Indian River. And frankly, it would be nice to have a little more outdoor dining spots than we have presently. So, I think locals, if it was something of that mix, would be extremely supportive of the development. So, let's talk about timelines. Construction starting in 2026. I don't doubt that they've got a great team committed to it, but you've got to put your funding together and then you've got to get your approvals.

None of that is a fast process. Done by 2031. Well, we are at 2026 now. I think it's possible that it could be done by then. And the question becomes, what is it going to be? I don't think we're going to be seeing it in the next year or two. I think what it's going to become will be clear in the next year or two and then the construction thereafter. My take, I don't know the particulars, I'm not an expert. This is just my take on what I've been reading in the local papers for and from what I know about being here 22 years.

So, if it happens in some fashion, positive uptick effect on Vero Beach overall in having one more great thing to do, whether it's a park or the full-blown hotel site of some sort. And the children's museum would be fantastic. If it doesn't happen, I think there's no negative effect and it becomes neutral and Vero Beach inherently, just by virtue of its long-standing low-density limited development portfolio policy, still continues to appreciate as we have scarcity on our side and they're not making any more land. So, until then, I think we're in good shape, but time will tell and I will keep you guys posted in terms of where things are going and what this project ends up looking like, concept versus reality.

Time will tell. Thanks for watching. If you want more information about this, DM me or reach us through our contact form and I'll give you more info as I know it. And if you want to talk more about Vero Beach, be sure to check all of our YouTube channels cuz there's there's so many videos about different topics that you guys tell me you want to hear about and I appreciate you watching. Have a great day. Until next time, I'm Sally Dale. Take care.